By Michael Crosson
VegasInsider.com
- Best Nfl Parlay Week 11
- Best Nfl Parlay Week 8
- Best Nfl Parlay Bets This Week
- Best Nfl Parlays This Weekend
NFL Week 11 O/U Parlay – Falcons (U51 ½), Lions (O49), Steelers (O46 ½) At the top of this piece, we spoke about the injury to Drew Brees and how that might affect the Saints. We will get out first hint this weekend when they host the Falcons. I see the Saints relying heavily on the run, which should help keep the point total UNDER. This is often easier done when using decimal odds, for example, a three-team parlay with each selection at odds of 3.0 would be calculated by 3.0 x 3.0 x 3.0 for 27.0 or 27-1 parlay odds. Jan 05, 2021 Before you make any NFL picks and parlays for Wild Card Weekend, you NEED to see what it has to say. It's off to a strong 23-13 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model enters the NFL Playoffs on an incredible 119-77 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. NFL betting and NFL parlays go hand in hand, and aside from straight wagering, NFL parlay bets are the most popular type of wager placed on the NFL An NFL parlay is a bet where you combine multiple selections into a single wager, with all of the selections needing to.
Sign up to receive daily news from VegasInsiderWild Card Weekend in the NFL is finally here and Saturday’s slate is jam-packed with three nationally televised matchups to wager on.
Indianapolis at Buffalo (1:05 p.m. ET)
L.A. Rams at Seattle (4:40 p.m. ET)
Tampa Bay at Washington (8:15 p.m. ET)
VI has you covered with another slate of Parlay and Prop suggestions to help bettors cash winning tickets or inspire them to build their own exotic plays.
My selections for Saturday can be found below.
Good luck!
NFL Wild Card Parlay Best Bets
3-Way Money Line Parlay
- Buffalo Bills (-295) vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Seattle Seahawks (-178) vs. L.A. Rams
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-450) at Washington
Payout: +156 at FanDuel
The Buffalo Bills are coming into Wild Card Weekend scorching hot, having won nine of their last 10 contests and their only loss across that stretch coming by way of a successful last-second DeAndre Hopkins hail-mary attempt against the Arizona Cardinals.
Indianapolis needed to win four of its last five games and get some help in order to get back into the AFC playoff picture and luckily for them it happened, but now the Colts will be forced to square off with arguably the hottest team in the NFL as Phillip Rivers and company will look to knock off their first playoff-caliber opponent since they beat the Packers back in Week 11 (L’s – PIT, TEN).
The Bills, to me, are currently the only team in the AFC that could potentially match Kansas City’s offensive firepower for a full 60 minutes in a playoff atmosphere, and I believe we are inevitably destined for a Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship game with a ticket to this year’s Super Bowl on the line.
Jared Goff, is listed as questionable with a thumb injury for Los Angeles’ opening round playoff matchup against the Seahawks, and after splitting a pair of games during the regular season, the books have given a 3-point advantage to the home team in Seattle for Saturday’s rubber-match.Considering the Rams are only threepoint underdogs, the books have indicated that they believe Goff is going to suit up for this contest and I believe that as well. But even if Goff does play in this game, there is a very slim chance that the quarterback’s thumb will be fully healed by kickoff on Saturday and even if he is 100%, I would likely still side with Seattle.
By earning the top Wild Card spot in the NFC, Tampa Bay may have drawn the most favorable matchup out of any team in the conference as Tom Brady will make his Buccaneers’ playoff debut in Landover, Maryland against the Washington Football Team.
Washington needed a win over the Eagles on Sunday Night Football last week to secure a playoff berth, and took all of Doug Pederson losing the game intentionally down the stretch for the Football Team to narrowly win the NFC East crown.
The Buccaneers lost three of four games prior to their Week 17 bye (Saints, Rams, Chiefs), but have completely turned things around since then by winning four consecutive contests to close out the year and feeding Antonio Brown a touchdown in three of those victories.
Ron Rivera is undoubtedly proud of what his team has accomplished in his first year as head coach is Washington, but I have to imagine this is where the 2020 NFC East Champs’ season will inevitably come to an end.
NFL Wild Card Prop Best Bets
Odds & Props Available at FanDuel
Seattle RB Chris Carson – Over 56.5 rushing yards (-112)
Chris Carson returned from injury back in Week 12 against the Eagles and recorded 59 total yards and a TD on 5.1 yards per carry in a game that the Seahawks won handedly (23-17).
Since then, he has averaged 4+ yards per carry in each of Seattle’s last five games and eclipsed 56 rushing yards in four of those contests. Back him to go over that mark again in a playoff contest that the Seahawks desperately need to get their run game going in.
Indianapolis RB Jonathan Taylor – Anytime TD Scorer (-105)
If it was unclear prior to last week what the Colts’ offensive identity was, Frank Reich put an end to that conversation in Indy’s most recent affair by running the ball 30 times with his rookie running-back, Jonathan Taylor, who erupted for 253 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a must-win game against the Jaguars.
I don’t think the Colts will beat the Bills on Saturday but if Buffalo is weak in an area defensively, it is their ground game ranking 27th in rushing touchdowns allowed per game (1.3) and 26th in rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.6).
Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady – Over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+158)
The Buccaneers didn’t clinch a playoff berth until last week’s win over the Falcons secured them a Wild Card spot, so Brady has been in postseason mode for a couple of weeks now and it has showed up on the stat sheet with the 43-year old throwing for 8 TD’s and just one pick over his last two games.
Tampa Bay has scored 30+ points in each of its last three contests so I am electing to ride with the hot-hand in TB12 to throw for three more TD’s in his Buccaneers’ playoff debut against Washington.
Odds and Payouts per at FanDuel (Subject to Change)
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Parlay betting is one of the favorite forms of wager for NFL gamblers and is the most popular form of wagering besides sides and totals narrowly beating out teasers. For years bettors have tried to hit big against the sportsbooks betting parlays. Some gamblers seem to swear by them while others never go near them.
Are NFL parlays profitable? What can I do to maximize my edge against the bookmakers in these potentially large payoff but high variance type of bets? I’ll answer these questions and more in this article.
What Are Parlays?
Parlays are single wagers that are linked together, all of which must win for the parlay to be graded as a winner. Parlays are the American equivalent to accumulators, which are widely used in popular European betting markets.
The odds on parlays are greater than individual side or total bets. For instance, a two-team parlay pays +260 and a 3-team parlay +600, and as players add more bets to a parlay their odds continue to increase. Let’s look at an example of a typical three-team parlay on an NFL Sunday:
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts +8 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers -3 (-110)
If I were to risk $100 on this three team parlay I’d have a potential payout amount of $600, good for a $500 profit. All three of the above teams would have to cover for me to win my bet. If two of my picks cover the point spread, but one of them ends in a push, the parlay then goes from three teams to two teams.
If I bet a two-team parlay and push the one of my picks, it normally just becomes a straight bet at -110 at the vast majority of online sportsbooks. In fact, if these are not the rules on two-team parlays at your sportsbook, I’d recommend finding another option because any other scenario, even a no action (refund your stake) is borderline predatory.
True Odds vs. Listed Odds
Best Nfl Parlay Week 11
Parlays, just like every other NFL wager have built in vig for the sportsbooks. Below, we’ve compiled a table of the “true odds” on winning a parlay without the bookmaker’s juice and the typical odds offered at most online sportsbooks.
| Number Of Teams | True Odds | Standard Offshore Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 |
| 3 | 5.97/1 | 6/1 |
| 4 | 15/1 | 12.3/1 |
| 5 | 31/1 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 47.5/1 | 40/1 |
| 7 | 127/1 | 75/1 |
| 8 | 255/1 | 125/1 |
| 9 | 511/1 | 150/1 |
| 10 | 1023/1 | 300/1 |
As you can see, the sportsbook have a considerable edge on bettors with the vig. While it is smaller, but still significant when players bet two or three-team parlays, it gets larger and larger as players add more teams to their bet.
The odds past two and three-team parlays start to get considerably worse and are downright robbery when the bettors hit 7-team parlays.
Calculated Parlays
When a bettor takes a wager that is not the standard -110, the sportsbook will recalculate the parlay to fit the player’s new chosen wagers. This can be when a bettor parlays a side or total with a prop (or other non -110 bet), and though the vig will still be a factor, bettors can usually get a better price on their wager than just going with the standard odds.
For instance, if we add a plus odds bet such as +120 or +130 to other -110 wagers, we will increase our overall parlay potential payout. The increase in odds will vary but sportsbook, but is certainly something NFL bettors should try to utilize.
Parlays Are Normally a Bad Bet
As we can see from the table above, it is clear parlays have a significant bookmakers edge, especially as bettors begin to increase the number of teams. One of the main reasons for the increase in the edge is the risk and variance taken by the sportsbooks if someone should hit one of these bets for massive money. A winning ticket on a 10-team parlay pays out immensely even with the massive edge by the sportsbooks. A $100 wager has potential winnings of $30,000 which is a nice chunk of change for the sportsbooks to payout.
Also, parlays are high odds bets with a low rate of success and will increase variance more so than straight wagers on sides and totals. Also, consider that if you are betting parlays that you’re most likely not getting the best line because you aren’t line shopping.
Sportsbooks are hard to beat, especially in NFL betting where line shopping is vital. When I bet a parlay, I essentially throw line shopping out the window. Sure, I could luck out here and there and get the best numbers on all my games at the same book, but that rarely happens. Finding the best lines available at a variety of books and betting individual wagers is usually a better option.
Best Nfl Parlay Week 8
Tips for NFL Parlays
Even though parlays are generally –EV bets, there are some situations where we can bring the sportsbooks edge down considerably and give ourselves the best chance to beat the book despite the vig.
Don’t Go Over Three
Feel free to examine the table above again as it is quite clear the bookie’s edge gets a lot larger after two and three team parlays. The true odds of +300 for two-team parlays are not far from the offered line of most sportsbooks at +260. For three-team parlays, the true odds of +597 are only slightly off from the +600 offered at most sportsbooks.
These are by far the best options for parlay bettors. As bettors add more teams, the vig continues to increase, making even 4 or 5-team parlays much worse bets than one or two teams. As we get closer towards 10 teams, the odds on parlays are among the worst bets for sports bettors.
Playing With House Money?
Best Nfl Parlay Bets This Week
When bettors first deposit at a sportsbook they are rewarded with a bonus that usually comes in the form of a freeplay. Since you are essentially playing with house money, your odds will increase on all wagers since you are not staking any of your own money.
Depending on the bonus amount, a freeplay may increase your edge on the bookies by 10-20 percent. Receiving plus odds (beating the bookie’s vig) may be possible on a variety of parlay wagers with this rather large added edge.
Correlated Parlays
Correlated parlays are two-team parlays that are essentially two bets on that are likely to win if one of them comes to fruition, at least in the handicapper’s mind.
In the NFL, this might happen when a high scoring team faces an opponent in which they are rather large favorites. The bettor may decide to bet the spread favorite and parlay the over because if he is right about the favored team covering the spread – he figures the game will be high scoring. If the favored team also has a poor defense, the underdog may also contribute a lot of points to the total. This situation can also be used the same way a game that a bettor predicts to be a low scoring affair. These are just examples of the reasoning behind correlated parlays, bettors have a variety of reasons for betting them.
Correlated parlays do not have quantifiable edges and bettors will have to use their own judgment in how a game will shape up. However, if you become adept at betting correlated parlays, it can be one of the only ways to gain an edge on the bookmakers via parlay.
Although, it is also pertinent to note that correlated parlays are sometimes frowned upon by sportsbooks, and many will limit the amount a bettor can wager or disallow them all together from certain accounts.
Best Sportsbooks for NFL Parlays
US-facing sportsbooks’ parlay odds have quite a bit of variation, and depending on the number of teams in the parlay, each book may offer an advantage over another.
Bovada.lv offers the best 4-team parlay odds around at 15/1, and they are also one of the most trusted books for US sports betting dating back a decade. No book comes close to matching Bovada at 15/1 on 4-team parlays. Most other sportsbooks servicing US players offer 12/1 on these bets, making Bovada the play to be for 4-team parlays.
Bookmaker.eu has a slight edge, but one that is worth your while on three-team parlays. While most other books offer 6/1 odds, Bookmaker gives players 6.5/1 on this wager. This is especially significant considering two and three-team parlays have the lowest house edge. Bookmaker’s parent company have been around a long time in the offshore world and they always seem to pay players. For some, that is all that matters.
Best Nfl Parlays This Weekend
5Dimes Sportsbook offer competitive odds as well on their parlays and is one of the few sites that allow bettors to parlay proposition wagers, such as player and team props with side and totals. 5Dimes is among the most trusted sportsbooks on the web and is a pioneer in offshore betting.