The sports betting menu is crowded with choices. Some of the wagering opportunities you’ll come across are a bit on the advanced side, but there are also ones which are straightforward and easy to wrap your head around.
A moneyline bet is a straightforward wager on which team will win a particular game. The odds compilers at sports betting sites will weigh up the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team. A moneyline wager is a straight bet on the winner of a game. There are no point spreads attached or any other factors to consider. The sole concern is which side will win the contest. After taking a look at the moneyline odds for a game you’re interested in betting on, you’ll know which side is expected to win. One of the most popular ways to bet on sports is the moneyline. This common betting option is used by new, recreational and experienced bettors and it’s one of the simplest ways to make a sports bet because you’re wagering only on which team will win or lose. Odds Shark’s Moneyline Betting Guide will explain the wide variety of moneyline bets that can be made, why and how sportsbooks display the odds and how the moneyline differs from other betting options like point spreads or totals. You are betting the outright straight up winner without regard to point spread. A negative ML is assigned to teh favorite, lets say -200 means you will have to bet 200 to win 100. Get the latest odds, spreads and betting lines from this week's games, as well as full coverage of the National Football League from USA TODAY.
Moneyline bets fall into the latter category. For these wagers, you’re simply choosing the winner of the game. That’s it. There’s no point spread to worry about or anything like that. If the side you pick wins the game, you’re golden.
While the concept itself is simple, there’s more than meets the eye when it comes to the moneyline. There are times when the bets make sense, situations where you should pass, and other scenarios in which you may want to do a little shopping.
We’re going to take a detailed look at everything you need to know right here. For starters, here are the best spots to place your bets online legally and safely.
How Does the Moneyline Work?
After a quick glance at the moneyline odds, you will immediately know which side is the favorite or the underdog in a game. Oddsmakers will attach odds to both sides of the equation.
The favorite will be designated with negative odds, while the underdog will have positive odds attached. Here’s what they’ll look like at an online sportsbook using a random NFL game as an example.
- Los Angeles Rams +110
- San Francisco 49ers -130
In this fictitious game, the 49ers are favored, and bets on that side will pay out at odds of -130 if correct. For the underdog Rams, successful bets on that side pay out at odds of +110.
So how do the odds impact what the actual return will be. Here’s the math on both sides for a $100 wager.
- $100 bet at odds of +110 = potential total return of $210 (the original $100 bet plus a profit of $110).
- $100 bet at odds of -130 = potential total return of $176.90 (the original $100 stake plus a profit of $76.90).
As you can see, a successful bet at positive odds offers the chance for greater returns than successful bets at negative odds.
However, that doesn’t mean you should randomly place your wagers on underdogs and hope for the best. Normal handicapping rules apply with moneyline betting, and the goal is to place your bets on the side you feel gives you the greatest chance of being right.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline wager is a straight bet on the winner of a game. There are no point spreads attached or any other factors to consider. The sole concern is which side will win the contest.
After taking a look at the moneyline odds for a game you’re interested in betting on, you’ll know which side is expected to win. The favorite will have negative odds attached, while the underdog has positive odds.
Once you know that, the task at hand is to handicap the game and figure out which side you like. We’ll cover some tips on handicapping in a bit. For now, just know that it’s not as complex as it may sound.
Returns are going to vary based on which side you bet on. In a nutshell, you’ll see larger returns for correct bets on underdogs, but you shouldn’t let that be the determining factor on your choices.
There will be times when you find that the underdog makes the most sense, but there will also be plenty of times when you come up with the favorite as the answer to the question.
It can be helpful to be selective with which wagers you place on the moneyline. We’ll be covering that in more detail as we move along.
Betting on Favorites vs. Underdogs
When looking at moneyline odds, the favorite and the underdog will be readily apparent.
- Chicago Bulls +120
- Houston Rockets -140
In this fictitious NBA matchup, the Rockets are a decent-sized favorite. You’ll see less of a return for betting on that side as a result, while successful wagers on the underdog Bulls would see a bigger return.
Once again, it’s important not to let the potential return be your guide. Making the correct call is the bottom line, so your choices should revolve around which side you think has the greater chance to win.
To that end, it can be helpful to break down the game first prior to worrying about what the potential return will be. After you do this enough times, you’ll be able to figure out the range of returns quickly anyway, and that can help you be more selective with your choices.
For example, you may find that huge favorites are relatively safe wagers, but that the returns aren’t what you have in mind on a long-term basis. As such, you make a concerted effort to look for other opportunities first, such as favorites at odds of -180 or less.
After breaking down enough games on the other side, you’ll begin to understand that huge underdogs are that way for a reason. Sure, they’ll come in here and there, but solely focusing on big underdogs and hoping for a big score is not a recipe for a healthy bankroll.
Balance is a big key with moneyline betting, and the ultimate return on investment is the bottom line to focus on.
Examples of Moneyline Betting
Moneyline odds are offered for all of the major North American sports. The odds are presented in the same way for each, so you’ll be able to interpret them quickly.
For example, here’s a moneyline for an MLB game with a huge favorite.
- San Francisco Giants +180
- Los Angeles Dodgers -220
At first glance, you can quickly tell that the Dodgers have a big advantage for this contest, such as a stronger overall team or a substantial edge in pitching.
Now, let’s take a look at an NHL contest which has much tighter odds.
- Boston Bruins +100
- Montreal Canadiens -120
After looking at this game, we can reasonably assume that these two squads are relatively even. The Canadiens are favored, but the gap in odds is far from substantial.
For basketball and football, point spread bets receive a ton of attention, but there’s also moneyline betting for these two sports. A common misconception is that there’s not enough value to be found on the moneyline in comparison to the spread.
If you solely focus on big favorites, that’s true. However, there are plenty of games in which the moneyline odds are tight. When you look at the point spread for these contests, you can quickly see which ones may have favorable moneyline odds.
As an example, a point spread of 2.5 points or less is a good indicator of a tight game. That being the case, the moneyline odds will have decent value on both sides that’s worth exploring.
Moneyline Betting on Close Games
Speaking of close games, you’ll come across many of these on the odds board regardless of which sport you’re focused on. When evenly-matched teams square off, it can be close to a toss-up in terms of which side will win.
Oddsmakers recognize this, and they will price the games accordingly. For example, in a really tight NFL game, you could see moneyline odds like this.
- Minnesota Vikings -105
- New Orleans Saints -115
When the odds are in such a close range, the difference in return is pretty small. However, that doesn’t mean you should flip a coin and hope for the best.
You’ll still be handicapping the game in search of a winner. It doesn’t matter how even teams may seem at first glance or according to the odds. There are almost always points of difference to be found, and you can always pass on those that are legitimately too close to call.
Moneyline Bet Odds and Line Moves
When odds are released for a slate of games, these are known as the opening lines. After they’re out, the betting public has a chance to weigh in.
Depending on how the action comes in, this can lead to a shift in lines. For example, if lots of money comes in on the favorite, odds on that side will rise in a bid to even out the action.
For bookmakers, the goal is to not be too lopsided one way or the other. If they get a ton of bets on one side and few on the other, that opens up liability on their end. To limit situations such as this, they will adjust the odds where needed in a bid to attract action on the other side.
Lines can also move based on new information that emerges after the initial release. A lineup change, trade, or previously undisclosed injury are among the things which can have an impact.
A good rule of thumb is to examine any changes from the opening line to the time you are ready to place your bets. This can point you to what the overall market sentiment is on the game, and also potentially alert you that there’s some news out there that you may have missed.
Moneyline shopping – What is it, how do you do it?
All odds are not created equal. While major sportsbook operators are typically in range, you can find some ticks of difference, especially on the moneyline.
In general, the differences won’t be eye-popping. Bookmakers that are far off the beaten path will stick out like a sore thumb. As a result, bettors will quickly jump on that line and bring it back more to the level of the general consensus.
To find these points of difference, you’ll need to engage in what’s known as line shopping. This refers to checking the odds and lines at different sportsbooks in a quest to find the best price.
If you were going to buy something online and found differing prices in a few different spots, you would naturally gravitate towards the better deal. It’s the same thing with sports betting odds.
For example, if one book is offering odds of -140 on a favorite, but another book is at -130, the better deal is at the latter. You’ll get a better return there for placing your wager on that particular game.
How to Handicap Moneyline Bets
Handicapping games can sound formidable when you’re unfamiliar with the concept. However, it can actually be a simple process if you allow it to be.
It can be quite easy to get lost in research, and that can make it just as simple to get overwhelmed with information. Especially when starting out, keep it simple and focus on the things that really matter.
Here’s a simple five-point plan that you can use as a starting point.
- The odds and lines for the game. What is this telling you?
- Overall strength of the two teams. Is there a marked difference between the squads?
- Home/road splits. How do the two teams perform in the role they have for this game?
- Key Stats. Points for and against, and other sport-specific stats that really make a difference in the outcome.
- Recent Play. Is one team playing much better than the other recently?
The process gets quicker the more times you go through it. Once you have a handle on it, you can begin to tweak and personalize it to your specifications, such as by adding more stats into the equation that you feel really impact the outcome.
The Bottom Line on Moneyline Betting
Moneyline bets are straight forward wagers in which you are simply deciding which side you think will win. For each game on the docket, oddsmakers will designate a favorite and underdog.
Which side is which will be reflected in the odds. Favorites will have negative odds, while the underdog will have positive odds. The odds tell us the likelihood of something happening, as well as what the potential return will be for our wagers.
Moneyline odds are found for all of the major sports. The odds can shift based on market action, as well as news which may develop after the initial release.
There are a number of different systems for handicapping moneyline odds. We’ve included a simple one here in this article which you can use as a starting point. As you advance with sports betting, you’ll be able to implement your own system and tweak as needed.
Action: Having a wager on a game.
ATS ('against the [point] spread'): If a team is 5-2 ATS, it means it has a 5-2 record against the point spread, or more commonly referred to simply as the 'spread.'
Backdoor cover: When a team scores points at the end of a game to cover the spread unexpectedly.
Bad beat: Losing a bet you should have won. It's especially used when the betting result is decided late in the game to change the side that covers the spread. Also used in poker, such as when a player way ahead in the expected win percentage loses on the river (last card).
Beard: Someone who places a wager for another person (aka 'runner').
Book: Short for sportsbook or bookmaker; person or establishment that takes bets from customers.
Bookie: A person who accepts bets illegally and charges vig.
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Buying points: Some bookies or sportsbooks will allow customers to alter the set line and then adjust odds. For example, a bettor might decide he wants to have his team as a 3-point underdog instead of the set line of 2.5. He has then 'bought' half a point, and the odds of his bet will be changed.
Chalk: The favorite in the game. People said to be 'chalk' bettors typically bet the favorite.
Circle game: A game for which the betting limits are lowered, usually because of injuries and/or weather.
Closing line: The final line before the game or event begins.
Consensus pick: Derived from data accumulated from a variety of sportsbooks in PickCenter. The pick, and its percentage, provides insight as to what side the public is taking in a game.
Cover: The betting result on a point-spread wager. For a favorite to cover, it has to win by more than the spread; an underdog covers by winning outright or losing by less than the spread.
Dime: Jargon for a $1,000 bet. If you bet 'three dimes,' that means a $3,000 wager.
'Dog: Short for underdog.
Dollar: Jargon for a $100 bet. Usually used with bookies; if you bet 'five dollars,' that means a $500 wager.
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Edge: An advantage. Sports bettors might feel they have an edge on a book if they think its lines aren't accurate.
Even money: Odds that are considered 50-50. You put up $1 to win $1.
Exotic: Any wager other than a straight bet or parlay; can also be called a 'prop' or 'proposition wager.'
Favorite: The expected straight-up winner in a game or event. Depending on the sport, the favorite will lay either odds or points. For example, in a football game, if a team is a 2.5-point favorite, it will have to win by three points or more to be an ATS winner.
Fixed: A participant in a particular game who alters the result of that game or match to a completely or partially predetermined result. The participant did not play honestly or fairly because of an undue outside influence.
Futures bet: A long-term wager that typically relates to a team's season-long success. Common futures bets include betting a team to win a championship at the outset of a season, or betting whether the team will win or lose more games than a set line at the start of the season.
Halftime bet: A bet made after the first half ended and before the second half begins (football and basketball primarily). The oddsmaker generally starts with half of the game side/total and adjusts based on what happened in the first half.
Handicapper: A person trying to predict the winners of an event.
Handle: The amount of money taken by a book on an event or the total amount of money wagered.
Hedging: Betting the opposing side of your original bet, to either ensure some profit or minimize potential loss. This is typically done with futures bets, but can also be done on individual games with halftime bets or in-game wagering.
High roller: A high-stakes gambler.
Hook: A half-point. If a team is a 7.5-point favorite, it is said to be 'laying seven and a hook.'
In-game wagering: A service offered by books in which bettors can place multiple bets in real time, as the game is occurring.
Juice: The commission the bookie or bookmaker takes. Standard is 10 percent. Also called the 'vig/vigorish.'
Layoff: Money bet by a sportsbook with another sportsbook or bookmaker to reduce that book's liability.
Limit: The maximum bet taken by a book. If a book has a $10,000 limit, it'll take that bet but the book will then decide whether it's going to adjust the line before the bettor can bet again.
Lock: A guaranteed win in the eyes of the person who made the wager.
Middle: When a line moves, a bettor can try to 'middle' a wager and win both sides with minimal risk. Suppose a bettor bets one team as a 2.5-point favorite, then the line moves to 3.5 points. She can then bet the opposite team at 3.5 and hope the favorite wins by three points. She would then win both sides of the bet.
Money line (noun), money-line (modifier): A bet in which your team only needs to win. The point spread is replaced by odds.
Mush: A bettor or gambler who is considered to be bad luck.
Nickel: Jargon for a $500 bet. Usually used with bookies; if you bet 'a nickel,' that means a $500 wager.
Oddsmaker (also linemaker): The person who sets the odds. Some people use it synonymous with 'bookmaker' and often the same person will perform the role at a given book, but it can be separate if the oddsmaker is just setting the lines for the people who will eventually book the bets.
Off the board: When a book or bookie has taken a bet down and is no longer accepting action or wagers on the game. This can happen if there is a late injury or some uncertainty regarding who will be participating.
Over/under: A term that can be used to describe the total combined points in a game (the Ravens-Steelers over/under is 40 points) or the number of games a team will win in a season (the Broncos' over/under win total is 11.5). Also used in prop bets.
Parlay: A wager in which multiple teams are bet, either against the spread or on the money line. For the wager to win (or pay out), all of them must cover/win. The more teams you bet, the greater the odds.
Pick 'em: A game with no favorite or underdog. The point spread is zero, and the winner of the game is also the spread winner.
Point spread (or just 'spread'): The number of points by which the supposed better team is favored over the underdog.
Proposition (or prop) bet: A special or exotic wager that's not normally on the betting board, such as which team will score first or how many yards a player will gain. Sometimes called a 'game within a game.' These are especially popular on major events, with the Super Bowl being the ultimate prop betting event.
Push: When a result lands on the betting number and all wagers are refunded. For example, a 3-point favorite wins by exactly three points. Return on investment (ROI): In PickCenter, ROI is the amount (according to numberFire) that a bettor should expect to get back on a spread pick.
Runner: Someone who makes bets for another person (aka 'beard').
Sharp: A professional, sophisticated sports bettor.
Spread: Short for point spread.
Square: A casual gambler. Someone who typically isn't using sophisticated reasoning to make a wager.
Steam: When a line is moving unusually fast. It can be a result of a group or syndicate of bettors all getting their bets in at the same time. It can also occur when a respected handicapper gives a bet his followers all jump on, or based on people reacting to news such as an injury or weather conditions.
Straight up: The expected outright winner of the money line in an event or game, not contingent on the point spread.
Teaser: Betting multiple teams and adjusting the point spread in all the games in the bettor's favor. All games have to be picked correctly to win the wager.
Total: The perceived expected point, run or goal total in a game. For example, in a football game, if the total is 41 points, bettors can bet 'over' or 'under' on that perceived total.
Tout (service): a person (or group of people) who either sells or gives away picks on games or events.
Underdog: The team that is expected to lose straight up. You can either bet that the team will lose by less than the predicted amount (ATS), or get better than even-money odds that it will win the game outright. For example, if a team is a 2-1 underdog, you can bet $100 that the team will win. If it wins, you win $200 plus receive your original $100 wager back.
Vig/vigorish: The commission the bookie or bookmaker takes; also called the 'juice.' Standard is 10 percent.
Wager: A bet.
Welch: To not pay off a losing bet.
Wiseguy: A professional bettor. Another term for a 'sharp.'